Tackle The Odds: Domestic Rugby – The Business End

Well that was an enthralling end weekend of rugby in both the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup. We called it ourselves and we really did not see Harlequins coming up trumps against Bordeaux and what a game it was – really interested to see if they can go all the way – the bookies have them at 34-1. Exeter have a spirited performance down in Toulouse but Toulouse went into 5th gear after half time. Checkout this hit from two giants in the La Rochelle/Leinster game if that doesn’t get whet your appetite for more rugby, I don’t know what will! Of course the headline news is EPCR being unhappy with the Bulls for selecting a weakened team but Northampton look on great form their backline is hot!

The Premiership

But enough about Europe! Let’s get back to our homes and talk about domestic rugby! Starting with the premiership and things are looking really interesting with 8/10 teams all with a look of making the playoffs – so there are not many dead rubber games! we’re not going to go through all the games but have a few choice picks below. Taking a look at the outright betting, somehow Harlequins are at a very generous 17-1 to win the premiership.

Midlands Derby: Northampton Saints vs Leicester Tigers

Northampton are of course in some real form with their backline looking on fire. There is a small consideration for competing on two fronts and the toll that can take on the squad but I don’t see this taking much impact. Leicester have good away form which means it will be a tight match up. The bookies have Northampton around 1.40 which is a solid bet for a top of the table side. Betway are doing handicap betting at -20.5/+20.5 at 5.50 odds which does have an outside chance given Northamptons ability to score tries.

Grit vs Guile: Sale vs Quins

Be wary of a well rested sale playing at home. Sale’s convincing win against Exeter a few weeks ago shows what they can do and what it means for them to finish into the top 4. Will harlequins be needing to rest players after two back to back big games in the Champions cup. This is a really tough one to call – as ever, we’re not ones for sitting on the fence, give me a Sale win. The bookies are looking quite rewarding for a Harlequins win at 4.50 which is not outside of the realms of possibility but I think Sale will be too much up for this game.

Top14

Let’s now move into the Top14, this has always been the toughest to predict with so many variables. Toulouse, Stade Francais and Racing are top of the table but the bookies looks really interesting. Toulouse are odds on favourites with 2.62 to win the tournament, but the other teams look very rewarding indeed! Stade Francais at 9.00 and Racing at 10.00. Having watched the Toulouse vs Racing game the other week, Racing look a bit of a stretch but Stade Francais at those odds is certainly worth a punt. A couple of standout games below:

Côte d’Azur Derby: RC Toulon vs Toulouse

If you haven’t been to the Stade Felix Mayol, you need to get a visit organised. The stadium is positioned right on the coast in the heart of Toulon, the stands are so steep you feel like you are on the pitch and finally the supporters are so passionate. There is a saying that French teams don’t travel well and it seems the bookies have held onto this as well. Toulon are odds on favourite at 1.33 to win and Toulouse as high as 4.20. Considering they are favourites to win the whole thing, it seems bizarre. However when you drill it down, Toulon are 4th in the overall league points table for home games and Toulouse only winning 2 out of their last 5 away games. Again will they be resting DuPont & Ntamac? If so that will surely play a role. Definitely a game to watch.

Banana Skin: Castres vs La Rochelle

La Rochelle still have all to play for given they currently sit 4th in the table. With their all star team you can’t write them off – the bookies certainly haven’t, they have them as 2nd favourites to win the tournament with odds at 3.80. We picked this game because we can’t see La Rochelle not winning it. Castres form is terrible, winning 1 in their last 4 games. La Rochelle have terrible away form as well only winning 1 game out of 10!! But O’Gara surely will motivate his best team for this weekends game as they head to the business end of the season.

URC

Onto the URC, a lesser known quantity here with the games a bit more difficult to access but there are some interesting lineups this weekend. First off the outright betting of course has Leinster with 1.50 odds on favourites. Outside of that Munster & Bulls could be interesting at 8.00. Particularly after the Bulls recent antics! A look at the pic of the bunch below:

3rd vs 4th: Bulls vs Munster

Supposedly the game that the Bulls were resting their stars for so it would be slightly embarrassing if they didn’t win it! Bookies have Munster as big outsiders to win here at 5.00. Home form for the Bulls does not make them a fortress playing in South Africa but Munster aren’t great on the road either. Both of these sides are in form as well. This will be a close match up but Munster will be worth it with those odds

Under the radar: Stormers vs Ospreys

With the Bulls game in the balance, their compatriots may be looking to make their place in the top 4 at this important stage of the season. The ospreys have one of the worst travelling records this season with the Stormers unbeaten at home in the last 5 games. The Handicap betting is what looks appealing here, this game could be a high scoring affair and the bookies are giving -25.5/+25.5 as the money line and the Stormers at 3.00 odds – a chance to triple your money

Super Rugby

Finally, we have the Super Rugby, always an entertaining watch when you are doing minimal amounts of work on your friday there is a bye round this week so only one game makes our pick of the bunch:

Try Feast: Auckland Blues vs Brumbies

The Blues looked electric the other week against Moana Pacifica, but the brumbies are in form! 5 from their last 5 games won and 3 out of 4 wins on the road. I think the brumbies have an outside chance in this game and they have favourable odds. The blues will be tough to beat at home, they are 3 from 3, Brumbies 4.70 odds. an outside bet for the brumbies looks interesting here, be sure to tune in on this game which will be sure to score some points.

Backing Ourselves

Our record was somewhat diminished this week by Harlequins & La Rochelle however we remain at an honest 78% prediction success record. This week we’re backing the below teams:

Top14

La Rochelle, Racing 92, Pau, Stade Francais, Lyon, Toulon & Bordeaux

Premiership

Saracens, Northampton, Exeter, Bristol, Sale

URC

Glasgow, Ulster, Leinster, Treviso, Munster, Stormers, Connacht, Edinburgh

Super Rugby

Hurricanes, Reds, Brumbies, Crusaders

Stick an acca on these bets and you will get 44.37 odds! Perhaps stay tuned with our live scores and ensure you have a cashout option once 78% of the games have been completed!

Free Bets

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